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Q&A with William Howell on the 2008 Election

William Howell, associate professor and director of the Program on Political Institutions, took a few minutes in the days following November 4 to reflect on this year's election and to look ahead at some of the major issues President-Elect Barack Obama will have to tackle. Howell also talked about PPI's upcoming conference on "Race and the American Voter," scheduled for Thursday, December 11.

Q: What was the most surprising trend you observed in the election results?

A: What's unusual in comparing this election to 2000 and 2004 is the advantage the Democratic candidate had among the youth vote-both in terms of turnout and votes. Their turnout was much higher than in previous elections . and it was a huge advantage. Obama squeezed out victories in traditional red states-Virginia and North Carolina-and student populations probably played an important role.

Q: Given the Democrats' gain of seats in Congress and Obama as president, how easy or difficult do you think it will be for them to push their legislative agenda through Congress?

A: It's going to be easier, but it's not going to be easy. Having a more solid control of Senate, they are now in position to pick up a few moderate Republicans and overcome a filibuster. But there are still ample opportunities for Republicans to block. Enacting legislation is hard and it would be a mistake to think Obama can just step in and enact widespread sweeping reform of entitlements. For evidence of that you just need to look at first two years of the Clinton administration and his efforts to reform health care.

Q: There are obviously a lot of differences Democrats and Republicans have about the war in Iraq, especially around withdrawal. How do you think Obama and the Democrats will change the course of the war?

A: The constraints on Obama are less defined by Congress because he has so much support there and more defined by facts on the ground. He has repeatedly made the argument that he doesn't want to withdraw precipitously, but rather responsibly. So the speed at which he's able to withdraw depends in large part on how things look in Iraq. In that sense, he may not be able to move as fast as he would like.

Q: The economy is the biggest issue on everyone's mind. What's your read on the first steps Obama and his team will take to attack this issue?

A: The first order of business is to find a way to see through this bailout that has already been enacted. A lot of the action is to see which banks will receive how much aid. The process is unfolding and Obama has to take baton and run with it. Where to go from there is up to him. Is the point of attack to worry about failed mortgages, introduce new regulations on Wall Street, or a number of other things? We'll just have to wait and see.

Q: What lessons do you think the Republicans must learn from this election?

A: I think the extent to which [the Republicans] are in shambles is overstated. They've lost control of all three branches and just six years ago they were talking about a permanent Republican majority. There are deep [divisions] in the party among [on one side] the folks arguing for limited government and low regulation and on the other side Evangelicals concerned with social issues. But I don't think we should overemphasize it. Obama won 52 percent of popular vote and in 2000 it was split roughly 50/50 between the two candidates.

It is the case that the Democrats are a more viable threat and more organized, so Republicans do have to get their act together and [solidify] their message as to what they stand for. But after 2000, there was talk that the Democrats were in shambles . and sure enough they're back in control and in a big way. The same could happen with Republicans.

Q: What issues are you hoping to examine at the PPI conference?

A: We're really interested in looking at the ways in which race plays a role in elections generally and in 2008 in particular. That carries over into mobilization and turnout, taking a hard look at what role race plays when people go into the voting both, and issues involving polling. We'll be presenting data that assesses existing evidence on a Bradley effect. And we also want to be forward looking and see what this holds for the future.

On the whole, clearly Obama wasn't fundamentally hurt by his race. The combination of Palin's perceived inexperience and McCain's age were greater liabilities, but that doesn't mean race didn't play an important roles for some populations. For instance, one of the distinguishing features of this election is that Obama made headway in traditionally red states. If the Democratic party wants to chip away at solid Republican south, they'll have to fight issues of race that don't figure so prominently for people in Northern states.