Feature
May 1, 2009Guesnerie Discusses European and American Climate Policies
French economist Roger Guesnerie addressed Harris School students this week and shared his experiences as an economics expert on global warming. In 2003 Guesnerie served on a team that drafted a policy report for the French prime minister to guide the nation's environmental decisions. He shared what he learned with students as part of a three-day mini-series on environmental economics.
"After I wrote the report," he said, "I found that ... the dimension of [environmental policy] that became the most important to me was the time issue." Guesnerie stressed that global warming will become increasingly serious, projecting that the financial and ecological costs of establishing and organizing a response will skyrocket after 2050. Policymakers, he said, need to consider the "discount rate" of addressing environmental policy problems now.
The difficulty in forecasting environment impact on people's daily lives is that there are many uncertainties. "We [scientists] go through the exercise of making predictions for climate change within the next century" while attempting to account for emissions uncertainties and future human actions, said Guesnerie. "In part, success depends on climate policing. If these efforts are very successful, then the actual levels [of emissions] will be less than what we have predicted."
Despite these unknowns, Guesnerie assured students that there is no scientific controversy regarding global warming. "There is no doubt on the basic science, but there are scientific uncertainties, too." Future changes in science and technology alongside the increasing energy consumption of India and China also make projecting environmental impact difficult.
Every person on the planet is responsible for an average of one ton of carbon emissions per year. Breaking that number down by region presents a different picture. Per person, Americans are responsible for 6 tons on average, Europeans 2.3 tons, and Indians 0.3 tons. Guesnerie said that because the United States has kept energy prices low compared to Europe, Americans are accustomed to products and practices with greater environmental impact. But that also means that there is much room for improvement.
"U.S. cities have to decide what is the best way to lower carbon emissions. Although there are a lot of emissions, there are also a lot of ways to reduce [them]." In fact, the United States is in the position to lower more emissions in a less costly manner than Europe. To abate 30 percent of U.S. emissions would cost the same as a 0.6 percent reduction for Europe.
The continuing challenge for policymakers will be creating the correct incentives to reduce energy consumption and economically account for emissions. The technology exists, but implementing the policy to make better technology cost-effective is complicated. Guesnerie said, "People respond to incentives, but ... aren't aware of the byproducts" of their everyday lives. Changing policy must go hand-in-hand with increasing individuals' awareness of their daily environmental impact.
By Elizabeth Vivirito
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